Although Video Poker machines might have similar payout percentages, you might find yourself losing a lot more often on one of them – this is due to the variance. For the purposes of this article, you can think of variance as a combination of playtime and payouts. Although statistics majors may be cringing as they see this, I feel that visual aids makes information easier to internalize. A low variance will allow you to play longer as the payouts are generally more evenly spread across winning hands. A high variance will give you a shorter playing time as you will receive lower payouts for weaker hands, but the bigger payouts will be much larger.
Let’s look at Jacks or Better (99.5% optimal payout percentage, low variance) and the Double Bonus (100% optimal payout percentage, high variance) machine. Although having very similar payout percentages when played with an optimal strategy, the higher variance of the Double Bonus machine means that your bankroll will generally be depleting more quickly, but when you win it will be for a higher amount – the payout percentage takes the average expected winnings in the long run and is independent of the volatility, so when choosing a machine it is important to not only look at the payout percentage. We will look at both machines’ payout chart (max coins) to better explain why this variance exists.
| Video Poker Payout Chart (5 Coins) | ||
| Poker Hands | Jacks or Better | Double Bonus |
| Royal Flush | 4000 | 4000 |
| Straight Flush | 250 | 250 |
| Four Aces | 125 | 800 |
| Four 2′s, 3′s or 4′s | 125 | 400 |
| Four 5′s through K’s | 125 | 250 |
| Full House | 45 | 50 |
| Flush | 30 | 35 |
| Straight | 20 | 25 |
| Three of a Kind | 15 | 15 |
| Two Pairs | 10 | 5 |
| Pair of Jacks or Better | 5 | 5 |
Looking at the above should be able to give you a better idea of why the variance is so much higher for Double Bonus when compared to Jacks or Better. A few key points:
- Payouts for higher value hands (four of a kind) are much higher in Double Bonus Poker – this needs to be balanced somehow, which leads us to the next point.
- Payouts for two pairs are significantly lower in Double Bonus Poker. Although this might seem like a fair tradeoff for higher payouts for straights, flushes, full houses, and four a kinds it does have its drawbacks.
- During the course of play, you will end up with two pairs a fair amount of the time – certainly much more often than the higher paying hands.
Logically, the variance makes sense. Two pairs is the second most common winning hand, and to halve the payout will lead to a much faster depletion of your bankroll. The smaller payouts keep your bankroll stable until you hit a stronger hand – higher variance machines make both winning and losing more volatile, so although you may have a bigger payout for the more higher paying hands, the more common hands balance this out with lower payouts.
Which Video Poker Machine Should I Choose?
The answer is – it depends. Conservative players that want a longer playtime would be better off playing a Video Poker machine with lower variance. Aggressive players that prefer playing big to win big might prefer a machine with higher variance. In the long run the payout percentage is what dictates if the machine is worth playing or not – variance is one aspect that can help you decide which machine best suits your preferred play style.
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