When playing Blackjack, it is imperative to have a basic understanding of the odds both you and the dealer have of going bust. Without this knowledge, you are literally flushing your money down the toilet. Blackjack is a game of skill, and in this article we will discuss bust percentage.
Although this can apply to both you and the dealer we will focus on the dealer’s chance to bust – since the player has the chance to bust first, you need to decide whether to risk taking another card or standing and hoping the dealer will bust. As shown in our strategy guide, we will use the image below as a reference point:
The dealer’s upcard is your only clue as to what the dealer is holding. Although you can never know the full hand, you can estimate the chance to bust based of the dealer’s upcard. Recording your game over time you will also notice that no matter the dealer’s unrevealed card (hole card), certain upcards will lead to a greater number of dealer busts than others. Looking at the statistics behind this, we can see that logically it makes sense.
Approximately 30.8% of the cards in a deck have a value of 10 (10, J, Q, K) – 16/52 cards. We know that the dealer plays according to a set of rules where they must hit on 16 and stand on 17 (let’s disregard soft 17’s for the purpose of this article). So based on this information, we can assume about a 30% chance of the dealer’s hole card having a value of ten, and a 30% chance of the dealer’s next draw will be a 10.
With an upcard of 2-6 and the a holecard of 10, J, Q, or K, the dealer is forced to draw another card, leaving them with a very high chance to bust as opposed to drawing to a card to give a hand value of 17-21. Likewise, with an upcard of 7-Ace and a holecard of 10, J, Q, or K, the dealer is forced to stand which can explain the lower bust percentage.
Dealer Bust Percentage based off the dealer’s upcard is only one of the aspects that you should familiarize yourself with when playing Blackjack. Like any card game there is a great deal of luck involved, but Blackjack is a game where skill and understanding the math behind the game can go a long way to reducing the house edge.
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